LLM Causal Soothsaying — DAG viewer

Forward causal expansion from “Ozempic adoption rises”, merged into a DAG with noisy-OR marginals. Each view: drag = pan, scroll = zoom, hover = full statement, red = the Ozempic→…→apparel chain. The slider hides nodes below a probability threshold.

02 — marginal-greedy beam (3 layers)chain stalls @ depth 2

50 nodes. Greedy pruning by probability keeps the obvious clinical effects; confidence branch pruned.

03 — no prune, N=6 (3 layers)no apparel chain

215 nodes. Full breadth at N=6 still misses apparel — low-salience steps fall outside the top-6.

04 — diversity beam (5 layers)drifts into tangents

194 nodes. Novelty-seeking keeps the frontier diverse but wanders away from the coherent chain.

05 — no prune, N=12 (3 layers)chain found

1481 nodes. Higher breadth surfaces the chain: weight loss → body-image/self-esteem → “clothing spending shifts toward self-expression rather than concealment.” (Heavy — raise the slider.)